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Commercial prices to rise in '11

The commercial real estate market in Phoenix finally seems to have leveled off, according to the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. Part of a report showing a continued drop in local home prices, the latest study predicts some positive movement in the commercial sector next year. “If the historical pattern is followed, which appears to be the case, 2011 should see a significant improvement in commercial prices, basically a recovery from the distressed levels of 2009 and 2010,” said professor Karl Guntermann, Fred E. Taylor professor of real estate who authored the reports with research associate Adam Nowak. “However, the improvement in the commercial market for the next few years is likely to occur fairly gradually, given the expected recovery in the Arizona economy and unusually high vacancy rates in all sectors of the commercial market.” Commercial prices peaked at an annual rate of 28 percent in the third quarter of 2006, the report says, after which they experienced a decline that reached an annual rate of 40 percent by the end of 2009.

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