Behind the Population Shift

Last week, the Census released population figures that will reshape the House of Representatives, moving political power south and west. The four states that added the most people were California, Florida, Georgia and Texas, and the two states with the highest growth rates were Arizona and Nevada. Why do these states attract so many people? The rise of the Sun Belt has two common explanations: one climatic and the other commercial. The climatic, obvious explanation is that it’s the weather, stupid. The commercial explanation, which has a proselytizing undertone, is that places like Texas and Nevada attract companies and people with their lower business taxes and fewer regulations. The first view emphasizes the outdoors; the second right-to-work laws. If all that we knew was that Sun Belt populations were increasing, it would be impossible to distinguish among these and other theories, but we have evidence on wages, productivity and the price of housing that can help us make sense of the Census.

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