Arizona job growth expected to increase in 2011, economists say

A recent flurry of employment fairs and hiring announcements has offered evidence of job growth in Arizona. Now, the economists are giving a thumbs up as well. For the first time in three years, the state is expected to begin gaining jobs in 2011, the Arizona Department of Commerce reported Thursday in its twice-a-year employment forecast. Economists predicted the state will add about 17,300 non-farm jobs this year, a slight but still positive increase of 0.7 percent. That's one of the more conservative estimates. Other economists predict gains of up to 2 percent this year as the economy begins to push toward a recovery. "As of now, they (commerce officials) are somewhat on the gloomy fringe of an overall gloomy group," said Lee McPheters, an Arizona State University economist and editor of the "Arizona Blue Chip Economic Forecast" and the "Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast" newsletters. Job gains in 2012 could be even better, with an addition of about 34,600 jobs, or 1.4 percent of the state's total, the Commerce Department said. The improving national economy, stronger business and consumer spending, a weak dollar that could encourage more foreign visitors, and slightly better bank financing are among the factors expected to help the state, economists say. On the other hand, the economy is still threatened by high unemployment, weak housing and commercial real-estate markets, rising gas prices, reduced state and local spending and deep state cuts in medical spending for the indigent that could affect the state's most steady source of jobs: the medical field.

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