Is housing glut over? Experts predict housing shortage by spring

Real estate experts predict the Valley’s years-long housing glut is reaching its end and, as early as this spring, could stun home buyers by transforming into a shortage. The crunch is expected to be more pronounced in the East Valley, where some subdivisions are approaching build-out and other builders are raising prices. The prediction may seem outlandish given how gloomy real estate news has been for years, said Mike Orr, director of the Arizona State University Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice. But a growing demand and shrinking supply has driven home prices up in recent months, he said. Orr thinks that’s gone unnoticed to people who will enter the market this spring, in what is typically the peak time for sales activity. “They’re going to be surprised that it’s so hard to buy a house. They’ve been hearing for so long that there’s a glut of homes,” Orr said. “They’ll go out and find there’s not a lot to choose from and every time they bid, there’ll be three or four other offers.” The shrinking supply is a mirror image of what happened in 2006, when there was a lag before the public realized the number of new homes had ballooned into a problem, Orr said. About 58,000 homes were on the market by late 2007. The long-term average is about 33,000 homes listed at any given time.

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